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Oliver Damian, profile picture
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Anti-fragile: how to thrive in extremistan

This document discusses key ideas from Nassim Taleb's concept of antifragility. It makes three main points: I. Modern society exists in "Extremistan" - a complex adaptive system where rare but extreme events have outsized impacts, unlike the simpler "Mediocristan" model assumed by most frameworks. II. In Extremistan, unknown unknowns or "black swans" matter more than known information. III. One can thrive in Extremistan by becoming antifragile through developing flexibility, optionality and ability to benefit from change rather than being harmed by it.

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Antifragile – how to thrive in extremistan Oliver Damian (proselytizing the ideas developed by Nassim Taleb)
3 Things I. We are in TMT „extremistan‟- a complex adaptive ecology but most of our conceptual tools are from „mediocristan‟ II. In „extremistan‟, what you don‟t know (Black Swans) matters more than what you know III. One can thrive in „extremistan‟ by becoming anti- fragile through convexity, optionality and flexibility
complex adaptive systems – more is different
Mediocristan
Extremistan
Fat head – long tail
Coping with black swans
3 ways to cope Fragile Robust Anti-fragile
Fragile -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1
Anti-fragile 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Concave vs Convex
Or to make it easier to remember
It was much simpler then
Now software is eating the world
Mobile is eating the world
Closing the loop
Software & hardware are converging
Anti-fragility in the start up world
Agile Is Dead (Long Live Agility)  Find out where you are  Take a small step towards your goal  Adjust your understanding based on what you learned  Repeat  When faced with two of more alternatives that deliver roughly the same value, take the path that makes future change easier.
Postel’s Law “Be conservative in what you send, and liberal in what you accept” - Jon Postel
 Anti-fragile Regulation?  Anti-fragile contracts?  Useful heuristics:  „skin in the game‟  orthogonal  micro services So what?
Minister Turnbull  “Optionality, flexibility, dynamism, creativity have never, ever been more important. And if you think about it - of those of you involved in financial markets, you will know, the more volatile markets are, the more valuable optionality is. We have to be, in Nicholas Nassim Taleb's term, antifragile. We have to develop approaches, concepts, businesses, institutions, governm ents, dare I say, that are strengthened by change, that, like the muscle in your body, becomes stronger with exercise and responding to dynamic conditions, as opposed to being fragile so that when there is a change to the operating environment, you break.” The Hon Malcolm Turnbull MP, The „Innovator‟s Dilemma‟ – Why incumbent businesses often fail in times of rapid change at: http://www.minister.communications.gov.au/malcolm_turnbull/speeches/the_innovators_dilemma_- _why_incumbent_businesses_often_fail_in_times_of_rapid_change#.Ux4nYPmSySp