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Analysis of telecome industry -

The document discusses the transformation of the telecom industry over the next five years, addressing various scenarios: standstill, progressive, surprise-free, and disruptive. It highlights challenges such as declining landline usage, increased competition, and the need for innovation in services and infrastructure. Future strategies include targeting rural markets, enhancing service accessibility, and focusing on premium services to drive revenue.

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Telecom 2015 five telling years
Agenda • Recap of stage one and stage two • Scenario framework for Telco, 2015 – Standstill – Progressive – Surprise free – Disruptive • Companies Standing • STAR 2015 • Summary and conclusions
Agenda • Recap of stage one and stage two • Scenario framework for Telco, 2015 – Standstill – Progressive – Surprise free – Disruptive • Companies Standing • STAR 2015 • Summary and conclusions
Agenda • Recap of stage one and stage two • Scenario framework for Telco, 2015 – Standstill – Progressive – Surprise free – Disruptive • Companies Standing • STAR 2015 • Summary and conclusions
The telecom industry has undergone significant structural change over the last decade; how will it evolve over the next 5 years? • With growth of wireless telephony, land line volume is declining. • With increasing competition ARPU is declining . • VOIP and other INTERNET based telephony, bypass Telecom systems. • New technologies in Telecom, demand higher CAPEX with no scope of matching ROI. • Price wars to somehow gain business volume; hamper income and the business viability. • Stake holders are compelled to follow the market in pricing, in order to retain market share. -How will communications evolve over the next five years?
Four future scenarios
Agenda • Recap of stage one and stage two • Scenario framework for Telco, 2015 – Standstill – Progressive – Surprise free – Disruptive • Companies Standing • STAR 2015 • Summary and conclusions
Standstill USAGE: connectivity usage similar to today – personal, download etc. Services: Packaged connectivity and communication services prevail. Revenue model: Start war of tariff packages, emphasis on cost control. Industry Structure: declining of small players Access: will be depend on advanced technology, which will affect 2G,3G services. Regulation: will be strict.
Agenda • Recap of stage one and stage two • Scenario framework for Telco, 2015 – Standstill – Progressive – Surprise free – Disruptive • Companies Standing • STAR 2015 • Summary and conclusions
Progressive USAGE:- Usage Will be high in this case SERVICE:- Customer require premium connectivity ACCESS:- Android and low cost phones drive this scenario REVENUE MODEL :- Wholesale driven with premium connectivity a key feature for revenue generation Carriers are able to generate premium prices for ultra broadband. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE:- A co-operative of horizontally integrated infrastructure providers catering to a myriad of asset-light service providers such as OTTs, Banks, Utilities, Governments etc. REGULATION:- As it is today
TRIGGER / REALIZATION PATH FOR SCENARIO Economic and Investment and Competition Consumer and Financial Technology Regulation Markets Investors confident of Widespread National govt. Increase use/ higher return deployment of fund open availability of from open ultrafast infrastructure for connected connectivity broadband economic growth devices innovation
Current Positioning and Way forward
Scope of Wallet Business • Scope of business for the MTM Service Provider. – Most money transactions are virtual money moves between mTm-acc & mTm-acc within the MTM system. Therefore, most of real money remain within the system. • Potential of MTM as a business. – There will be above billion phones in India soon. – With a minimum monthly average of Rs.10000/- transaction the annual business will be a mind boggling sum of Rs. 120 Trillion. – The surplus liquidity available could be usefully deployed.
Critical Success Potential Capability Attributes Recommendations Bharti Vodafon Progressive Idea Airtel e Partnership with other Funding model for open infrastructure providers Good access network Good Medium including infrastructure municipalities extend ultra-fast broadband coverage Accessibility in rural Collaboration with good Rural Good Weak Medium market retailer Build modular business Dynamic Business Excelle architectures based on Good Good Design nt standards and flexible, common technology platforms Create new operating model Structurally separate Good Good Medium and organization to Network and services support structural separation Companies have to start Innovative application Excelle Good Good some new Value added Such as M-Commerce nt services
Agenda • Recap of stage one and stage two • Scenario framework for Telco, 2015 – Standstill – Progressive – Surprise free – Disruptive • Companies Standing • STAR 2015 • Summary and conclusions
Surprise Free USAGE:- High Usage SERVICE:- Increased customer adoption digital lifestyle services ACCESS:- High access required specially in rural. areas REVENUE MODEL:- Low because of immense competition INDUSTRY STRUCTURE : Some emerging market providers expand globally. REGULATION : Liberal policies.
Critical Success Potential capability Attributes RECOMMENDATIONS Vodaph SURPRISE FREE Airtel Idea one Shared infrastructure with INFRASTRUCTURE Good Good Medium reduced Capex and increased connectivity. Medium Medium 3G Good(9) INFRASTRUSTURE (13) (11) Collaboration with good RURAL MARKET Good Weak Medium Rural retailers. VALUE ADDED Excellen Generate more alternatives Good Good SERVICES t for consumers . NUMBER PORTABILITY Third First Second Improve Quality Service.
Agenda • Recap of stage one and stage two • Scenario framework for Telco, 2015 – Standstill – Progressive – Surprise free – Disruptive • Companies Standing • STAR 2015 • Summary and conclusions
Disruptive USAGE: Demand will be high Services: Lasses faire Revenue model: Typically lowering price (Skype)a Industry Structure: More rivals are entering leading to competition Access: High value services to customers Regulation: Deregulation
Percentage of Active Subscribers (sources- TRAI) Operator % of Active users operator Reasons - wise  Multiple sim users or subscribers BHARTI 89% signed up only for the freebies that IDEA 87% came bundled with startup kits. VODAFONE 75%  Most of the new operators are in the RCOM 67% business of throwing Sims to collect a customer. AIRCEL 59%  Unsatisfactory service by new BSNL 59% providers. MTS 46% TATA TELE 45% VIDEOCON 39% UNINOR 31% STEL 24%
Strategy In rural • Studies the commercial viability of a rural based on parameters such as source of livelihood, average income, and involvement in frequent commercial transactions or travels. • Qualifying villages are first to receive a base station • Bharti Airtel tracks the revenue generated per base station (instead of ARPU, which is considered less relevant in a rural context). • Use of local languages, Vans. • Set up PCO’s to increase brand awareness and service. • Customer service centre are set up with the use of local employees • Bharti Airtel has already established over 18,000 service centers in rural India, covering over 400 languages and local dialects
Future Strategy • Changes in the organization structure • QUALCOMM (US based company- has broadband license in four circle-Mumbai, Delhi, kerala & Haryana) • Also keep an eye on- UNINOR, VIDEOCON, STEL. • Additional 40,000 towers for rural market
Strength And weakness • Strength – Very focused on Telecom – Leadership in fast growing telecom sector – Pan-India footprint • Weakness - Price competition from vodafone and idea - Untapped rural market.
Rohit Kumar Gupta Sunny Tomar Saud Hasan Deepak Kumar Verma Raghav Mehta Vinod Kumar