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Overview of Electric Transmission
August 2026
2
Electric transmission moves power over long distances, often from locations where it is
generated at low cost to areas of high demand. But transmission capacity is limited—
both between and within regions—and those constraints could raise costs and limit the
grid’s ability to meet rising projected demand.
In five sections, this document presents an overview of electric transmission, focusing
on factors relevant to its buildout:
▪ What are the trends in the electric power sector? (Slides 4–11)
▪ How is the grid organized, and who builds transmission? (Slides 12–16)
▪ How is the grid overseen, and who plans and pays for upgrades? (Slides 17–21)
▪ What types of transmission lines are being built? (Slides 22–26)
▪ What other factors may affect future development of transmission? (Slides 27–30)
What Is This Document About?
3
After years of flat demand, electricity consumption is rising, driven by growth in
factors such as artificial intelligence (AI) and electrification of transportation.
Studies project that transmission capacity would need to grow by 3 percent or
more annually by 2050 to meet growing demand for electricity; recent buildout
has been less than 1 percent per year.
Most electricity is traded in wholesale markets, with most transmission built by
local electric utilities.
Responsibility for planning, permitting, and determining who pays for new
transmission is not centralized. Rather, it is shared across multiple entities with
distinct roles and incentives.
Regulatory incentives favor investment in transmission by local utilities; in part
because of those incentives, interregional and competitively bid projects remain a
small share of total spending.
Recent technological innovations and administrative actions may affect the scale
and pace of new transmission capacity.
Key Takeaways
4
Electric Transmission and Trends in
the Power Sector
5
Data source: Energy Information Administration (2026a).
Utility scale batteries, pumped storage, and similar technologies store and later release power and function as secondary rather than primary sources of electricity.
Higher voltages are more efficient (that is, have lower line losses) when transmitting power over distance. Transformers increase the voltage from the generator for traveling through
the transmission network. At the other end, transformers lower the voltage for the local distribution network to be safely used by a household.
Transmission Connects Producers to Users of Power
Electric power has three main
components: generation,
transmission, and distribution.
▪ Generation refers to the power
plants that produce electricity.
▪ Transmission refers to the higher-
voltage long-distance lines that
connect generation with
distribution, allowing electricity to
flow from power plants to areas
with load.
▪ Distribution refers to the
local network of low-voltage
lines that deliver power to
electricity customers.
6
System Reliability
Transmission allows power to flow among broader regions—from areas with
surplus production to others facing a shortfall that might stem from generator
outages, extreme weather, sudden changes in demand, or other factors.
Economic
Transmission can reduce the overall cost of meeting electricity demand by
enabling interregional trade and expanding access to lower-cost generation.
Access to Generation
Transmission can enable power from regions where generation is
comparatively plentiful—such as hydropower in the Northwest, wind in the
Midwest, or solar and geothermal in the West—to reach population and
industrial centers elsewhere.
Transmission Serves Several Functions for the Power System
7
Data sources: Jenkins et al. (2023) for 1978–1999 and 2004–2016; Congressional Budget Office, using data from Adler (2024) and FERC (2023–2026) for 2017–2024.
Average Annual Growth of Transmission Capacity
in Recent Decades
Total U.S. transmission capacity
is ~150 terawatt-miles (TW-mi).
One TW-mi represents the
capacity to deliver the power
output of about 1,000 typical
nuclear reactors over one mile.
Most transmission is currently
built to connect relatively nearby
sources of power.
Growth in annual transmission
capacity has been slowing, from
averaging nearly 2 percent in
the 1980s and 1990s to less
than 1 percent in recent years.
1.9%
1.2%
0.6%
1978–1999
2004–2016
2017–2024
8
Data source: Congressional Budget Office, using data from Energy Information Administration (2026c).
Electricity Demand Since 1980
After 15 years of nearly flat
growth, by contrast, electricity
demand as measured in
terawatt-hours (TWh) has
grown by about 2 percent per
year over the last five years.
That growth is comparable to
rates last seen between the
1980s and early 2000s.
9
Data source: Energy Information Administration (2026b), “Alternative Transportation” and “High Electricity Demand” cases.
Compared with EIA’s baseline case, the high electricity demand case (“EIA High Projection,” orange) reflects a significant increase in demand for AI services coupled with greater
power requirements for AI servers used in data centers. EIA’s alternative transportation case (“EIA Low Projection,” blue) reflects a permanent removal of standards for greenhouse
gas emissions from light- and heavy-duty vehicles.
Electricity Demand Is Projected to Grow, but
the Magnitude Is Uncertain
The Energy Information Administration (EIA)
expects that, by 2050, electricity use will grow
by 25 to 50 percent of 2025 demand over a
range of economic and policy scenarios.
That wide range largely reflects different
outcomes in the commercial and
transportation sectors:
▪ High Projection. Commercial
electricity use is 25 percent above EIA’s
baseline for that sector, driven by high
demand for data center services.
▪ Low Projection. Electricity use in
transportation is 65 percent below EIA’s
baseline, reflecting reduced standards
for vehicle tailpipe emissions.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh
Range of U.S. Electricity Use in EIA Projections
1,970
TWh
950
TWh
EIA High Projection
EIA Low Projection Cumulative
Increase
Since 2025
2025 Demand
10
Data sources: Congressional Budget Office, using data from Blanford et al. (2026), James et al. (2026), Mural et al. (2026), Smith et al. (2026), BloombergNEF (2025),
Denman et al. (2025), Goldman Sachs (2025), International Energy Agency (2025), Paltsev et al. (2025), Green et al. (2024), and Vivian Lee (2024).
Growth in Electricity Demand by Data Centers Is a
Key Uncertainty With Wide-Ranging Estimates
Estimates based on 11 sources (other
than EIA) show a wide range of possible
increases in electricity demand from
data centers.
The share of electricity use from data
centers increased by about 100 TWh from
2014 to 2023, or from less than 2 percent
of U.S. demand to about 4 percent.
Growth in demand for data centers is
expected to accelerate to between 12 and
25 percent of total load by 2035—
projected increases of between roughly
400 and 1,300 TWh from use in 2023.
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034
TWh
Projected Demand for Electricity From Data Centers
2% of U.S.
Demand
17%
25%
12%
Average
Low
High
4% of U.S.
Demand
Share of
Projected 2035
U.S. Demand
11
Recent studies conclude that significant growth in new transmission capacity will be
necessary to meet higher levels of future electricity demand.
▪ National Transmission Planning Study (DOE 2024): 2.1–2.6 times 2020 levels
by 2050 (average growth of 2.5–3.2 percent per year)
However, annual transmission growth in recent years has averaged 0.6 percent.
▪ Some researchers posit that regulatory constraints are reducing the buildout of
new transmission lines (Davis, Hausman, and Rose 2023; DeLosa,
Pfeifenberger, and Joskow 2024; Hausman 2025).
Growth of Transmission Might Lag Demand Growth
12
Organization of the Grid
and Who Builds Transmission
13
Data source: Government Accountability Office (2019).
The contiguous United States is divided into distinct
regions of electrical power:
▪ Eastern Interconnection
▪ Western Interconnection
▪ Electricity Reliability Council of Texas
(ERCOT; wholly inside Texas)
Those interconnects operate largely independently:
▪ Limited power flow between them.
▪ Transfer requires special conversion facilities.
Each interconnection operates as a single, largely
self-contained system.
▪ Transmission planning, investment, and
operation occur separately within each
interconnect.
The North American Power Grid Consists of Three
Interconnections in the Contiguous United States
14
Data sources: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (2025); Van Nostrand (2026).
Most U.S. Electricity Is Traded in Wholesale Markets
About 70 percent of U.S. electricity is traded in
competitive wholesale markets (regional
transmission organizations [RTOs] or independent
system operators [ISOs], highlighted on map)
▪ Grid operators run centralized markets.
▪ Utilities purchase power from generators,
sometimes located far from customers.
In other regions, utilities generally own their
generation and deliver electricity at regulated rates.
Transmission enables trade both within and across
market regions—sometimes from distant sources.
15
*Merchant lines may be high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines, in contrast with the alternating current (AC) lines used in most of the grid. Unlike AC lines, in which power flows over
the path of least resistance, HVDC lines allow the owner to choose to have power flow in one direction or the other.
The local electric utility
▪ Upgrades or replaces existing lines in a utility’s service territory.
▪ Proposes new lines listed mainly as being for grid reliability reasons or to
connect new generators within its service territory.
A private entity
▪ Can propose a new line for:
• Economic reasons—for example, to transmit power from lower-cost
generation in one location to another location where the cost to serve
load is higher or to reduce congestion.
• Public policy reasons—for example, to help a state meet a
requirement to have a certain percentage of generation from
zero-carbon generation.
▪ Can sometimes competitively bid to build a transmission line.
▪ In other cases, can build “merchant” lines, with rights sold to transmit
power over the lines to individual generators or utilities.*
Who Builds Transmission
16
Transmission is needed to connect new generators to the grid.
Generally, the generator pays for upgrades to the transmission network to
accommodate interconnection (DeLosa, Pfeifenberger, and Joskow 2024).
The process of connecting generators to the grid varies among
regional markets.
▪ Capacity accreditation approach (for example, PJM)
• Analyzes the transmission upgrades necessary for a generator to supply firm
power across all hours (energy plus capacity).
• When study is complete, generator pays for the transmission upgrades and
can interconnect at full capacity.
▪ Connect-and-manage approach in ERCOT
• Analyzes whether enough transmission capacity is available for the generator
to supply energy in at least some hours (energy only).
• Generator pays only for necessary upgrades to connect; this approach is
generally faster and cheaper, but generator assumes the risk of being limited
to sell less power to the grid when transmission constraints are present.
Transmission and the Interconnection Queue
17
Oversight of the Grid
18
The seven ISOs/RTOs are CAISO, SPP, ERCOT, MISO, ISO-NE, NYISO, and PJM.
Federal: The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) regulates the
transmission and wholesale sale of electricity crossing state lines, and reviews
proposed rate increases and transmission plans from grid operators.
Regional: Seven RTOs/ISOs oversee high-voltage transmission operations,
facilitate wholesale electricity competition across utilities, and perform long-term
transmission planning.
State: Public Utility Commissions (PUCs) have main responsibility for
determining the need for new transmission lines and siting approval for
right-of-way.
Three Layers of Grid Oversight
19
For more on the federal permits necessary for transmission, see “Federal Permitting Process Flowchart for a Transmission Project,” www.permittinginstitute.org/transmission-chart.
States have authority over siting and permitting lines within their borders.
▪ A developer generally must show a need to the PUC.
▪ Rights of way (ROW) for the path of the transmission line must be secured.
▪ County or local jurisdictional rules may apply.
▪ Other state offices may be involved with permitting.
Limited federal siting authority is available under the Federal Power Act.
▪ The Department of Energy can designate National Interest Electric Transmission
Corridors (NIETCs). To date, no corridors have officially been designated, although
potential corridors are under review.
▪ For projects over federal lands, federal permitting processes may apply.
Interstate projects must secure ROW and permits from each state along the route; thus,
interplay among regulatory entities can affect transmission buildout.
▪ For example, an RTO/ISO may propose a line that crosses state lines.
▪ Any state PUC that opposes can slow or stop the process.
Siting and Permitting Is Done Predominantly by States
20
Transmission planning is the process by which RTOs/ISOs, states, or both
determine or evaluate which new transmission lines are needed for the grid.
Most regions typically plan for individual project drivers (reliability, economic, and
public policy) separately (Pfeifenberger et al. 2021).
Cost–benefit analyses are typically done separately for each proposed line instead
of being analyzed over a group of regional projects (Pfeifenberger et al. 2021).
Planning Is Predominantly Conducted Regionally and by States
21
Cost allocation is the process by which costs of a transmission line are assigned
to the entities responsible for paying for it.
▪ The state PUC (or similar) reviews proposed transmission investments.
▪ If a project is deemed necessary, costs are allocated to the utility’s
customers in rate hearings.
Scope of cost allocation differs between regulated and deregulated states.
▪ Some states have right of first refusal (ROFR) laws; the utility must decline
to build a transmission line before any other entity can build it.
FERC cost causation principle: Costs are allocated proportionally to benefits.
▪ No standardized method; grid operators and states can define their own
approach (Macey and Mays 2024).
Paying for Transmission Combines State and Federal Elements
22
Types of Transmission Lines
Currently Being Built
23
Data sources: Pfeifenberger and Heller (2025); Congressional Budget Office, using data from Edison Electric Institute (2026).
Annual Investment in Transmission by Region (1996–2024)
Though growth in transmission
capacity has slowed, annual
investment in transmission has
grown, albeit unevenly by region.
Most transmission projects are
local—within a utility’s service
territory or an RTO/ISO region; few
projects have been built across
regions (Lyons and Litra 2024).
Ninety percent of spending on
electric transmission was driven
mainly by reliability (Pfeifenberger
and Heller 2025).
Industry projections suggest nearly a
50 percent increase in annual
investment for transmission by 2028
(Edison Electric Institute 2026).
24
FERC Order 1000 (2011) removed the federal ROFR for incumbent utilities for
building new transmission.
▪ Previously, the utility had the sole right to build transmission in its territory.
▪ The order allows competition with other developers on regional projects.
A regional project is across one or more utility service territories or states.
▪ Undergoes substantial review of the potential needs and cost–benefit analyses,
with costs paid by customers of some or all utilities in the RTO/ISO.
▪ Could become part of a regional planning process after corridors are identified
in which transmission capacity may be needed.
▪ Must secure siting authority/permits from relevant state(s) along its route.
A local or supplemental project falls within a single utility’s service territory.
▪ Undergoes limited RTO review, with costs paid by transmission owner.
▪ Generally minimal review from state PUC after RTO approval because the
upgrades are deemed necessary for reliability.
Types of Transmission Lines Currently Being Built:
Regional Versus Local Projects
25
Data sources: Congressional Budget Office, using data from FERC Monthly Energy Infrastructure Updates, www.ferc.gov/staff-reports-and-papers; NERC ES&D data for projects
planned through 2034, https://tinyurl.com/NERCESD; and Pfeifenberger and Heller (2025), https://tinyurl.com/3fpr6mjn.
Lower-voltage local projects built by incumbent utilities have seen most investment
dollars in recent years (DeLosa, Pfeifenberger, and Joskow 2024).
▪ From 2014 to 2022 in PJM, $38.3 billion was approved for local transmission
investments, compared with $6.4 billion in regional transmission.
▪ The share of overall transmission investment accounted for by local lines has
increased from 30 to 80 percent in MISO and PJM over the most recent decade
(Macey 2024).
▪ Over 80 percent of line miles were completed by incumbent utilities from 2011 to
2020, on average (DOE 2023); competitively bid projects were 3 percent of total
transmission spending from 2013 to 2017 (Pfeifenberger et al. 2019).
▪ About two-thirds of line miles completed since 2021 have been lower voltage
(230kV or below).
Almost all (90 percent) historical projects and nearly 80 percent of planned projects are
driven mainly by reliability.
Minimal interregional transmission or transmission built across regions planned at the
RTO level.
Recent Trends in Types of Transmission Investment
26
Transmission creates “winners and losers” (Davis, Hausman, and Rose 2023).
▪ New transmission capacity allows interconnecting lower-cost generators to
meet demand or relieve congestion, thus allowing system load to be served by
less-costly generation.
▪ However, existing consumers in lower-cost areas and producers in
higher-cost areas are worse off.
Local utility is often incentivized to build their own transmission lines (Hausman 2025).
▪ Regulated utility earns a guaranteed return on equity from its
capital investments.
▪ May also oppose building of other utilities’ transmission lines near their service
territory to protect the value of its existing generation assets.
Local Utility Incentivized to Build in Regulatory Environment
27
Future Development of Transmission
28
Researchers forecast increased demand for transmission in response to growing
electricity demand and to replace aging grid infrastructure.
However, several potential factors might constrain transmission investment:
▪ Planning for, siting and permitting, and determining who pays for new lines
▪ Local utility incentives in regulatory environment
▪ A wide variety of stakeholders beyond the federal government:
• Local utilities (public and private) and oversight authorities
• State commissions
• Regional organizations (RTOs and ISOs)
▪ Open question: Would changes to any individual policy meaningfully affect private
investments in transmission? Or would several policy changes be necessary?
(DeLosa, Pfeifenberger, and Joskow 2024; Elmendorf, Hubbard, and Liscow 2025)
Factors Affecting Future Development of Transmission
29
Data source: Mulvaney et al. (2024).
Grid-enhancing technologies can be added onto existing lines to increase power flows:
▪ Hardware such as dynamic line ratings, which use sensors to measure real-time
weather and calculate actual line capacity—typically higher than static ratings
based on worst-case conditions
▪ Nonhardware options such as topology optimization or software that can
automatically reroute power flows to relieve constraints on power lines
Reconductoring, or using existing ROW to replace old lines with higher-capacity lines
(also referred to as advanced conductors)
Minimizing need for new transmission by strategically locating storage, distributed
generation, or both near constrained demand centers (for example, “behind the meter”
or collocated with large users such as data centers)
Technological Changes for Transmission
30
NIETCs are defined by the Department of Energy at least partly on the basis of their National Transmission Planning process.
FERC Order 1920
▪ Long-term regional transmission planning (at least 20 years) with
consideration of
• At least two other long-term scenarios, plus sensitivity analysis, and
• Alternative transmission technologies—both grid-enhancing
technologies and reconductoring—as an option if cost-effective.
▪ Requires regional planner to file a default, expected cost allocation method
for selected regional projects.
FERC Order 1977
▪ FERC has backstop siting authority for projects proposed in federally
designated transmission corridors (NIETCs).
▪ Applies in limited circumstances, such as when a state has denied an
application or has not ruled on an application after the later of one year
from the application filing or the designation of the NIETC.
Recent Administrative Actions That May Affect Transmission
31
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In keeping with the Congressional Budget Office’s mandate to provide objective,
impartial analysis, the document makes no recommendations.
David Adler and Ron Gecan prepared the document, with guidance from
Nicholas Chase and Joseph Kile. Ann Futrell, Aaron Krupkin, Alaina Rhee,
Molly Sherlock, and Heidi Williams (a CBO contractor) offered comments.
Catherine Hausman of the University of Michigan commented on an earlier draft. The
assistance of external reviewers implies no responsibility for the final product; that
responsibility rests solely with CBO.
Jeffrey Kling reviewed the document, and Gabe Waggoner edited it. The document is
available at www.cbo.gov/publication/62705.
CBO seeks feedback to make its work as useful as possible. Please send comments
to communications@cbo.gov.
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