Mobile: The Market, The Web and Windows Phone’s Future

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/gnt/3850445756/

Mobile: The Market, The Web and
Windows Phone’s Future | Jason Grigsby
http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/dnorman/3732851541/

Twitter: @grigs
Tonight: @grigs_talks
Slides: bit.ly/grigs_padnug2011

Email: jason@cloudfour.com
Web: http://cloudfour.com/blog

Get a lot of email from this guy...
http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/

Mobile is Disruptive Technology

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/talkephotography/4523849236/ Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0

!"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-*./0&1'2&13*".'()*&+)&*'45".*$")
$67")&'8'$9"-07':1&+1';'<='4,>':1&+1'?'@-/+*&+1'4A*&+'>/-)07

3<7=4/1>13?=+571G0H1@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/1G0H1DE61G0H1@/.05,F/1I0/-0
J3-0.1#"1(+,-./-012345/16,+457
M&)::
'" ,&-./"()*%"+*"% !"#$%&'()*%"+*"%
3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @/.05,F/K
&" 6,+457/A1'L") 6,+457/A1!#L*%

%"
2+805-38/-019::;

M#&:: ,&-./"()*%"+*"%

$" @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/
6,+457/A1'L**

#"
M!!::

!"#$%&'()*%"+*"%
!"
DE6K
M):: G1#H"16,+457/A1*L*%

(! ($ (& () (* (!! (!$ (!& (!) (!*
(+,-./-012345/16,+457
3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ DE6 @/.05,F/

!"#$%&'()*&+,-+./0-$/+&12#2&3"#&242052-5$&-$6"/$&789%:;<&!$#+.2=$&,+$/+&50>0#$1&#"&?@&"35AB&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.F&$+#0>2#$+& 26
G9:CC&3$#-""H+&F24$&+F0==$1&03&60/+#&$0DF#&I,2/#$/+&+03.$&52,3.F JKLMLNOB&@",/.$%&7">=23A&E$="/#+&P&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.FB

Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

'""#"""#"""

A72BC0-D.06+-E272-C4064
H).>);E#!"''I#&"?@#%?#$%
,'-.'/)00)1*'23)*4'"#$%&'(15)0$
&"#"""#"""

%"#"""#"""

"#$%&'()*)')3'&6&)0&50$'71%'/1%$'89&*':;;;'<)77$%$*8'/15)0$'#91*$'/1<$03

$"#"""#"""

!"#"""#"""

!""# !""$ !""% !""& !"'"

()*+,-.+/0-12034#!"#$%&'()*)+ 5+*+-*6+74806#!"#$%&'()*)+
()*+#,-.+/#01#/)2#9!-:2,,2)7-.+/0-120343# ()*+#,-.+/#9:1;)#<5.5#*6+7480660;-%"<-
4/)+#5*#61225+7#+5,1*#8!3 =2,,2)7-=0/+:>*04-)8-;+*+?#4/)+#5*#)::;-=3#
'"#+5,1*#+/1#),->.+#-?#2)+)#?->.2#5.#+/1#-.@5.1#
A-@@1A+5-.#-?#+/1#B3C3#(5D;);E#-?#F-.G;1**3

J;):/5AI#4-,#KE1;,-1.#LL#9:1;)#C-?+0);1

http://www.opera.com/smw/

5.2
Billion
Mobile phone for
nearly everyone
on the planet.

Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion

•Box Ofﬁce
•DVD Sales & Rentals
Combined •Music Industry
•Video Games
Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

!"#$%&'&()*+)#'",*- ."/'0$*+1"/02&%*3*4",015#02&%
6"7*+&89/%2",*:;0"%*.2%*<2(*2%*6"7*+)#'",*.$2'"*=%#58>"%0,*:;0"% ?/'0"1

!"#$%&"'( !#$# )(&*+$", -(*./+012$/(&$(/ !+3#,(12$/(&$(/
!"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'() !"#$%&'()
*+,-. *+1-. *+/-. *++-. 0---.

234 234 234 234
5'((36. 5'((36. 5'((36. 5'((36.
;E7 A')'&?<:@B%'$#3(& 7'86"."9&: C"")<3:
2!P A?&?:C3(36?< !'.8": =>D:
!"(&6"<:A?&? RS ;(&3<: 3E?F:
U$366F S6'#3 =$$<3: G?H""I:
R"(3F43<< !"#$%&36T'.'"( >6?8<3: G?H""I:J?$?(
E%66"%)H. 5?():D?N. @7! =#?K"(L8"#
A3<<: M3(83(&
!"#$?B =<'N?N?
E?'O%
P?Q%&3(

!"#$%&'())$*+&,*"-&./01+&#"&./21+&34+$5&")&6"*#7)$&011&*4)8()9+&:*$;$)7$<34+$5=>&5$+8#"?&@)#$*)$#&A())$*+&34+$5&")&
16
A$4B#C&D*$4#$5&,*"-&.//0&#"&*$+?$D#(;$&?$48&-4*8$#&D4?(#4B(E4#(")+F&G"7*D$%&64D#G$#>&6"*#7)$>&H"*94)&G#4)B$I&J$+$4*DCF

Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/76074333@N00/317952268/ |
http://futuristmovie.com Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0

ME NEED IPHONE APP.
http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/

You know the story.
You’ve heard it before.

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/mmcnier/4711157110/

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/earlysound/2710970750/ Creative Commons

iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market
Android Symbian iPhone RIM Windows
Other

4% 3%

13%
36%

17%

27%

Android 36%, iPhone 17% in Q2 2011
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1689814

U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Feb 2011
Android iPhone RIM Windows Palm Others

2.4%
5.8% 2%

38.1%
24.7%

26.6%

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/7/
comScore_Reports_May_2011_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share

Know Your Demographics

Blackberry has Emerging markets

40% 80%
global enterprise of worldwide
mobile market. MMS traffic.

Know Your Geography

Blackberry has Sharp sells

37% 80%
Latin America of its phones in
smartphone market. Japan, leads market.

Most popular phone for youth in Brazil is Blackberry.
Blackberry Messenger is Addictive. Network Effects.

Source: http://bit.ly/dlpGt8

Why compare mobile to the PC market?

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/mesq/413104380/sizes/o/

Windows 8 will boost WP7

Help familiarize and validate the Metro UI

What are your customers using?

Ask Them

Use Mobile Analytics

Mobile’s Eight Unique Abilities

http://bit.ly/b3oUtH | http://bit.ly/92TYAR

PERSONAL

63% do not
share phone
http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/fchouse/2829381653/

~50% of US admit to
sleeping with phone

PERMANENTLY
CARRIED http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/kk/3615287378/

ALWAYS ON http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/gilderic/3517477267/

CREATIVE
IMPULSE http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/d_a_v_i_d_m_/246298437/

ACCURATE
MEASUREMENT

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/memotions/259656126/

SOCIAL CONTEXT http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/mythoto/1234638761/

AUGMENTED
REALITY

http://issuu.com/mkparsley/docs/ikea

Do Apps Create
Platform Lock-in?
If you've bought $200 worth of
applications for your
smartphone, you're much less
likely to switch to a different
model in the future.

In short, high spending on
smartphone apps ensures long-
term platform loyalty.

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/fxp/2374147405/sizes/l/

Do Apps REALLY Create Platform Lock-in?

App Cost

Twitter for iPhone Free

Reeder $2.99

Instapaper $4.99

Facebook Free

1Password $9.99

Total $17.97

Switching Costs are Lower

Are App Stores Essential to a Platform’s Success?

1. Android Has Horrible App Store
2. Needs to improve App Store to Compete
3. Oh Wait... Nevermind
Android RIM iPhone Windows Palm Others

2.8%
7.7% 2%

33.0%

25.2%

28.9%

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/1/
comScore_Reports_November_2010_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share

http://www.millennialmedia.com/wp-content/images/mobilemix/MM-MobileMix-Dec2010.pdf

Unlimited Voice, Text and Web for $40/mo.

81% of iPhone owners have household incomes
greater than the U.S. median household income

http://blog.comscore.com/2011/01/verizon_iphone_mobile_market.html

Cheaper iPhone Will Be a Big Deal
(I think. Remember I don’t know either!)

The analyst says Cook “appeared to reafﬁrm
the notion that Apple is likely to develop lower
priced offerings” to expand the market for the
iPhone. Cook said the company is planning
“clever things” to address the prepaid market,
and that Apple did not want its products to be
“just for the rich,” and that the company is “not
ceding any market.”

http://blogs.forbes.com/ericsavitz/2011/02/28/apple-plots-move-to-expand-iphones-market-share/

Native vs Web

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/hi-phi/54828371

Why are we ﬁghting?

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/jeff-bauche/2230236391/sizes/o/

“We have been trying to come up with a solution to let
developers write applications, yet keep the iPhone secure and
safe. We’ve come up with a sweet solution.”

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/acaben/541334636/

Web Developers
Web Developers
Mac Developers

Mac Developers
Web Developers
Mac Developers

Web aDevelopers
“That is bold idea. Very forward
thinking... This is the coming out
party for web apps. We are very
Macexcited about this. These are
Developers
exciting times.”
— Jason Fried, 37signals

“Perhaps it’s playing well in the
mainstream press, but here at WWDC,
Apple’s “you can write great apps for the
Mac Developers
iPhone: they’re called ‘web sites’” —
message went over like a lead balloon.

Web Developers
If all you have to offer is a shit sandwich,
just say it. Don’t tell us how lucky we are
and that it’s going to taste delicious.”
— Jon Gruber, Daring Fireball

Flickr photo by Civisi: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/civisi/2611679744/

Web 2.0 iPhone App Store
Web-based Apps Native Apps
Services & Mashups Few APIs between apps
Software as Service No Recurring Revenue
Cloud Computing Local Storage

Surprise Story of 2008

Flickr photo by Drift Words: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/44124413076@N01/11846265/

CHALLENGE:
Find a single report that doesn’t show
exponential growth for mobile web.

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/digobaptista/3270435022/

Native Mobile Apps

vs.

Mobile Web Apps

Native Mobile Apps

vs.

Mobile Web Apps

Mobile is Bigger than Just Apps

A mobile
website
for every
iPhone
app.

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/fotoosvanrobin/4932854288/sizes/l/

Let me share our secret for selling mobile web.
http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pricklebush/224674200/

Email Gallery Free Email Templates Email Marketing Companies Submit

Advertise Here Advertise Here

Column Type of Email Type of Business Color POPULARITY RESET

Hyundai USA Newsletter 3 Alertful Newsletter 2 Divine Chocolate Newsletter 2

Does your company send email to customers?
http://www.email-gallery.com

Does your company participate in social media?

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/intersectionconsulting/5177773774/

Links
don’t
open
apps

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/mattimattila/4001221570/

Only

21%
of Google’s largest advertisers
have mobile web sites.

Why?

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR MOBILE WEB:
Many Sites are Chaos Behind the Scenes

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/nickwheeleroz/2391631937/in/photostream/

Multiple Systems Taped Together
http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/ionan/103646126/

Our existing systems are
anchors holding us back.

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/caffeinehit/186362735/

Native Developers Start from a Clean Slate

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/salendron/5569020488/

HTML

HTML
NATIVE
HTML

HTML
Content NATIVE
HTML
& Services
NATIVE
HTML

HTML HTML

Car sketch: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/

Features of New Platforms
Integrated image resizing
Video conversion and resizing
Separation of content from markup so
content can be used in native apps
Prioritization of content based on context
Full-featured APIs
Synchronization
New Ways to Enable Content Editors

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/expressmonorail/3046970004/sizes/l/

What does WYSIWYG
mean to multiple devices?

WYSIWTF

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/ndm007/171398958/

http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/10/13/cope-create-once-publish-everywhere/

http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/11/11/content-portability-building-an-api-is-not-enough/

http://www.ﬂickr.com/
photos/andresthor/
3963368371/

One Possible Bridging Solution

example.com/products/[productID]

Desktop Web m.example.com/ Internet
Redirect
Internet Page products/[productID]

Desktop Mobile Device Class
Template A

Device Class
Template B
Desktop or MobileFour
Cloud Web
Desktop Mobile Mobile Web
Server w/ RWD
Web Server Server
Platform Device Class
Template C

Device Class
Template D

Web Services
APIs

APIs Necessary to Support App Development

Something we
can all agree on
Mobile Testing
SUCKS!

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/zachklein/54389823/

Even Most Successful Developers Face
the Challenge of Testing on Enough Devices
From the beginning, we have wanted to make Angry
Birds available for every feasible Android device... We
tested the game extensively on a large number of
devices, and gathered all the feedback we received
from our beta testing to address every possible issue.

So far, we have hesitated to create multiple versions
of Angry Birds for the Android platform. But judging
by the feedback we have received, we feel that by
providing a lightweight solution, we are doing a favour
for our fans.

http://www.rovio.com/index.php?mact=Blogs,cntnt01,showentry,
0&cntnt01entryid=47&cntnt01returnid=58

No. ARTICLES TOPICS ABOUT CONTACT CONTRIBUTE FEED
320
DECEMBER 14, 2010 Search ALA

Smartphone Browser Landscape include discussions
by P E T E R - P A U L K O C H

Published in: User Interface Design , Mobile , Mobile Design , Mobile Development
Topics
Discuss this article » | Share this article » Code
Content
Culture
Design
Mobile
Process
User Science

Snapshot
Most web designers and
developers (not to
mention the entire
blogosphere) fall
squarely in the high-end
market. A cultural bias
Users expect websites to work on their mobile phones. In two to three years, mobile support
exists against OSs aimed
will become standard for any site. Web developers must add mobile web development to their at any other market. As
skill set or risk losing clients. a result, most people
focus on the struggle
How do you make websites mobile compatible? The answer is obvious: By testing them on all between iOS and
mobile phones, and by solving the problems you encounter. But, that’s a useless answer. It’s Android, and ignore the
rest. This has to change.
impossible to test your designs on every mobile phone out there. Within the mobile phone
landscape, there are at least ten operating systems (OSs) and fifteen browsers that require
consideration. Mobile devices are expensive, and not every web developer can afford to buy
five to ten of them. Testing “on all mobile phones” is impossible for most web developers.

In this article, I’ll give you an overview of the mobile web market, as well as phone platforms
and their browsers, so that you can decide which mobile devices to test on. Then, we’ll look at
how to set up a mobile test bed. Stay in better touch with
customers with

“Testing on as many devices as possible is a great
idea in theory, but in practice it is untenable. Even if we
buy a few devices to try to cover more ground, they will be
outdated in just a few months or a year at most. So are we
supposed to buy multiple devices per year?”
posted at 11:32 am on December 14, 2010 by klayon

“If that’s the mobile landscape, I want no part of it.”
posted at 07:22 am on December 15, 2010 by Polsonby

http://www.alistapart.com/comments/smartphone-browser-landscape/

Mobile Portland Community Device Lab
• Dedicated location within mobile community in
central, downtown Portland.
• Adjacent event space to be used for hosting
Mobile Portland events and other user groups.
Also available for developer training sessions.
• Free and open to anyone. Run as a non-proﬁt.
Building Lobby
• Located in 25,000 sq. ft. building leased by
VC-funded mobile start up Urban Airship
• Other tenants in building include mobile
developers Cloud Four, Uncorked Studios and
Bank Simple.
• We’re creating a central hub for mobile activity
in the Portland area. The building is already
Device Lab Glass Ofﬁce becoming a magnet for mobile developers.

Mobile: The Market, The Web and Windows Phone’s Future

More Related Content

What's hot

Similar to Mobile: The Market, The Web and Windows Phone’s Future

More from Jason Grigsby

Recently uploaded

Mobile: The Market, The Web and Windows Phone’s Future