Sales Target Setting In Retail

(FMCG Blueprint) Sales forecasting in FMCG is both an art and a science. Let’s break it down using some basic matrices with a relatable example. Imagine we’re working for a brand that sells a spicy instant noodle, “HotBowl Ramen”. 1. Historical Sales Data (Your Crystal Ball) The first step is to look at past sales. For example: Month Sales (Units) January 10,000 February 11,000 March 10,500 April 12,000 Now, let’s assume you notice a 5% growth trend every month. For May, you might forecast: May Sales = April Sales * (1 + Growth Rate) = 12000 * (1 + 0.05) = 12600 Tip: This works well unless your sales suddenly nosedive because people discovered a new health fad: “No-Spice Life!” 2. Seasonality (Your FMCG Calendar) People eat more noodles in winter because “cozy food” vibes. Let’s adjust for seasonality: • Winter months: Add 10% • Summer months: Subtract 15% If your May forecast is 12,600 units but May is peak summer, adjust like this: Adjusted Sales = Base Sales * (1 - 0.15) = 12600*0.85 = 10,710 Reality Check: Your product is spicy. Some brave souls will still eat it even in May, sweating like they’re in a sauna. 3. Market Dynamics (Your Frenemy) Suppose your competitor, “MildBowl Ramen,” launches a huge promotion in May. You estimate a 10% impact on your sales. Final Sales Forecast = Adjusted Sales * (1 - 0.1) = 10710*0.9 = 9,639 4. Promotional Impact (Buy One, Cry One Free?) Now, your marketing team swoops in with a “Buy 1 Get 1 Free” promo. Promotions can boost sales by 20%, so: Promo Adjusted Sale = 9639*1.2 =11,566.8 Realistic Case Summary Step Forecasted Sales Base Sales Forecast 12,600 Seasonality Adjustment 10,710 Competitor Impact 9,639 Promo Impact 11,566 Funny Perspective Imagine your boss: • Before Forecast: “We need 15,000 units this month!” • After Your Analysis: “Hmm… okay, but let’s add another promo to reach 12,000 at least!” Your real hero? The customer who eats your spicy noodles even in May, sweating but happy. Moral: Forecasting is like cooking ramen—balance your ingredients (data) and adjust for taste (market trends)!

Discounts are a hammer that makes every problem in the business look like a nail. Businesses look at challenges like: - Excess inventory - Mediocre products - Low CLTV - Poor retention …and slap on the discount duct tape. The end result? Weak margin. A cheapened brand. And consumers who are conditioned to only buy from you if they get a hefty discount. We help retailers shift from one-size-fits-all discounts to targeted, efficient incentives. The exact playbook varies a lot by brand, but the approach needs to be both Technological (granular data in promo rules, and a wide range of incentive types) and Organizational (measuring marketers on margin & profit, and setting guardrails for offers). Some sample tactics include… 1️⃣ Shift to buy-more-save-more and bundle offers 2️⃣ Use 'challenges' for customers to work towards specific incentives 3️⃣ Require data capture (form, survey, preference center) to get a deal 4️⃣ Scope offers to specific SKU parameters, not entire categories 5️⃣ Don't show discounts too early or to high-propensity customers 6️⃣ Ensure marketers can use all customer, cart, and SKU data in offer rules 7️⃣ Make more offers 'final' (no returns on attractive deals) 8️⃣ Communicate non-discount value on item level (bonus points, gift with purchase) 9️⃣ Shift value prop to experiences & exclusivity with known users 🔟 Optimize promotions & loyalty program to get to break-even (e.g. 5th purchase, not 1st) But the goal is almost always to discount LESS, and to ensure that the remaining discounts are extremely efficient & targeted. Here are a few examples of what this discount discipline has meant for Talon.One customers: → Ecommerce company ($300m revenue) that decreased discount spend by 20% by switching to personalized coupon wallet → Clothing retailer ($1 Bn revenue) that increased promotions margin by 7.7% with shift to ‘buy more, save more’ playbook → Grocery delivery ($100m revenue) that decreased acquisition spend by 50% while ‘exiting’ customers who only buy with a hefty deal Is your business discounting itself to death? Send me a DM; happy to brainstorm ways to break the cycle.

Inflation isn't just about rising prices; it's a catalyst for changing consumer behaviors. As purchasing power shifts, businesses must adapt swiftly to meet evolving demands. Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL), a leader in the FMCG sector, showcases how embracing AI can turn these challenges into opportunities. 📌 The Challenge #HUL observed significant fluctuations in demand across its diverse product portfolio during inflationary periods. Premium products experienced slower sales, leading to overstock situations, while budget-friendly items frequently faced stockouts. Traditional forecasting methods, relying heavily on historical sales data, struggled to keep pace with these rapid changes in consumer preferences. 📊 The Solution: AI-Driven Demand Forecasting To address this, HUL integrated AI-powered analytics into its demand forecasting processes. This advanced system enabled the company to: Analyze Real-Time Consumer Behavior: By examining current purchasing patterns and consumer sentiment, HUL could detect emerging trends and shifts in preferences. Incorporate External Economic Indicators: The AI model factored in various economic indicators, such as inflation rates and consumer confidence indices, to predict their impact on product demand. Optimize Inventory Management: With precise demand forecasts, HUL adjusted its inventory levels accordingly, ensuring optimal stock across all product categories. 🔹 Key Insight: The AI-driven approach revealed that demand for budget-friendly products was increasing at a rate three times higher than traditional models had predicted, while premium product sales were declining in specific regions. 📈 The Impact 20% Reduction in Unsold Premium Stock: By aligning inventory with actual demand, HUL minimized excess stock of premium items. 35% Improvement in Stock Availability for Budget-Friendly Products: Ensuring that high-demand, cost-effective products were readily available led to increased customer satisfaction. Enhanced Revenue and Profit Margins: Optimized inventory management reduced holding costs and prevented lost sales, positively impacting the bottom line. 💡 The Lesson In times of economic uncertainty, relying solely on historical data can be a pitfall. HUL's proactive adoption of AI-driven demand forecasting exemplifies how leveraging advanced analytics allows businesses to stay agile and responsive to market dynamics, ensuring they meet consumer needs effectively How is your organization utilizing data analytics to navigate market fluctuations? #datadrivendecisionmaking #businessstrategies #dataanalytics #demandforecasting

Conferences are expensive, boring, and typically have low ROI....but company-led EVENTS on the other hand can be powerful signals. Here's the exact playbook we used at Onward to organize profitable events where prospects can have a great time AND move closer to buying: ➝ 1. Align on your goal. I used to make the mistake of expecting a close within 30 days of an event and would be continually disappointed based on that expectation. Now I consider events another "touch point" in the customer journey/funnel. Our goal is simply to usher the customer to the next stage of the funnel. So if all your leads are top of the funnel, don't expect to close at the event. It's about a) learning what moves the needle for them and b) educating them on our ROI. This will result in moving them to the next sales stage. Your mindset and intentions here are important because otherwise, your pitch will misfire and either come off too brash or too aggressive. ➝ 2. Set the agenda to be what the client would want—not what you want. One of our go-to tactics is mixing education and entertainment. We would create an interactive, immersive learning session w/ a world-class expert with a focus on equipping attendees with tangible takeaways in addition to networking. ➝ 3. Find great partners. In order to share the budget, we typically find like-minded companies that we want to partner with and share customer leads. We participated in Retention.com's marquee summer event in Malibu called Retox and it was one of the more lavish events we've been a part of with over 200+ brands attending. It takes a lot to move the needle for customers to get excited and sometimes you have to go all out! ➝ 4. Yet the simplest format is often the most effective—an intimate, private dinner. You'd be surprised at how much common ground you can find with a potential customer over a 2-hour dinner. Typically there are no pitches, just real connections. The sales pitches will come later—but upfront it's about getting to know one another and seeing how it would be to work together. Sales is about developing relationships and meaningful relationships are built when people can let their guard down and simply connect as human beings. And that's exactly what we aim for. So if you're tired of the same old networking scene and you're craving experiences that truly move the needle, I'd love to connect. What are some unique events you've thrown? I'm always looking for new ideas.

Ever wonder why some e-commerce brands always seem to have the right products in stock, while others struggle with overstock or empty shelves? It all comes down to demand forecasting—and in 2025, it’s getting an AI-powered upgrade. ● From guesswork to precision Traditional forecasting relies on historical sales data. AI-driven tools now go beyond that, integrating real-time factors like weather, local events, and even social media trends. The result? Forecasts with 90%+ accuracy instead of the usual 50%. ● GenAI: the next step Generative AI takes it further by analyzing unstructured data (customer reviews, trends, emerging demand signals) and answering questions in plain language. No more complex spreadsheets—just instant insights for better inventory planning. ● AI tools leading the way: ✔ Simporter – AI-powered forecasting that integrates multiple data sources to predict sales trends. ✔ Forts – uses AI for demand and supply planning, ensuring optimized inventory. ✔ ThirdEye Data – AI-driven forecasting that factors in seasonality and customer behavior. ✔ Swap – AI-based logistics platform that enhances inventory management. ✔ Nosto – AI-driven personalization that recommends the right products at the right time. ● Why this matters for #ecommerce? ✔️ Avoid stockouts that frustrate customers ✔️ Reduce excess inventory and free up cash ✔️ Adapt quickly to market shifts How are you managing demand forecasting in your store? #shopify

Here's how the big boys increase revenues from existing businesses. Depending on the stage of your business you could be a candidate to explore one or more of these. My experiences with not only my own businesses but advising other businesses has led to many a gratifying situation where one or more of these have revitalized the brand.  In many cases they have saved the company. Here are six strategies with real-world examples: 1. 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗘𝘅𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀    - Marvel: Expanded from comics to movies, TV shows, and merchandise.    - Coca-Cola: Introduced new product variations like Diet Coke and Coke Zero. 2. 𝗟𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴    - Disney: Licenses characters for various merchandise.    - Harry Potter: Licensed for toys, clothing, and theme park attractions. 3. 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀    - Apple and Nike: Collaborated on the Apple Watch Nike+.    - Supreme and Louis Vuitton: Created a limited-edition collection. 4. 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻    - Nike: Invested in e-commerce and personalized app experiences.    - Starbucks: Implemented mobile ordering and loyalty programs. 5. 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻    - Starbucks: Expanded aggressively in China.    - Tesla: Established Gigafactories in Germany and China. 6. 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘂𝗺𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻    - L’Oréal: Offers personalized skincare products.    - Coca-Cola: Introduced Freestyle machines for custom beverages. Leverage your brand and IP to drive growth and stay relevant. How are you tapping into your brand’s potential?

Ever stocked up on a product that turned into a dust-gathering flop? Or worse, missed out on a sales surge because your shelves were empty? That's the pain of bad demand forecasting, and it's felt across the manufacturing world. Get this: businesses with accurate demand forecasts enjoy a whopping 70%-90% reduction in inventory holding costs AND a 98% service-level rate.  Those numbers aren't magic; they're the result of ditching guesswork and embracing data analytics. Why Demand Forecasting Matters? 👉 Optimized Production: Produce what you'll actually sell. No more overstocking or frustrating shortages. 👉 Smoother Operations: Match your resources to real demand. Plan staffing, material procurement, and production schedules with confidence. 👉 Happy Customers = Happy Bottom Line: Have the right products available at the right time. Boost customer satisfaction and sales. Accurate demand forecasting has a ripple effect: 👉 Reduced Waste: Overproduction leads to wastage at every level. Forecast accurately, and minimize your environmental impact. 💪 Better Pricing Strategy: Understand demand peaks and valleys to make smarter, data-backed pricing choices. 👊 Boost in Competitiveness: Stay ahead of the game by anticipating market trends before your competitors even see them coming. Demand forecasting isn't about staring into a crystal ball. It's about using data analytics to uncover hidden patterns and build smart predictive models: 👁️🗨️ Historical Sales Data: The foundation of any good forecast. 👀 Market Trends: Watch for economic indicators, competitor moves, and changes in consumer preferences. 🙌 External Factors: Seasonality, promotions, even the weather can influence demand. 💥 Advanced Analytics: Machine learning algorithms can spot patterns humans miss, leading to supercharged forecasting accuracy. Here's what to analyze to up your demand forecasting game: 👉 Product-Level Specificity: Don't forecast in broad strokes. Break it down by SKU, location, and timeframe for granular insights. 👉 Time Horizons: Need both short-term (production planning) and long-term (strategic decisions) forecasts. 👉 Forecast Accuracy Tracking: Measure how your predictions stack up against reality, and keep refining those models. Wrangling complex demand data and building those super-smart forecasts can be tough. That's where Google's magic comes in. We can help you make sense of the numbers and get the insights you need to make confident, profit-driving decisions. Ready to conquer your demand forecasting challenges? Let's chat! Follow Omkar Sawant for more information! #demandforecasting #dataanalytics #manufacturing #supplychain #AI

Anybody else feeling like "Whelp, nothing is happening between now and January 1"? Seasonal sales cycles can feel like an excruciating waiting game. You’re eager to close deals, but your customer's timelines are driven by rigid schedules, budget reviews, or planning seasons. In some industries, waiting until decisions are finalized often means you’re too late. You've got to make sure your solution gets attention at the right time. Here’s how to align your approach with your customer's planning rhythm: Start by mapping out the year from your partner’s perspective. When do they begin budgeting? When do decisions need approval? For example: Winter-Spring (January–March): Many organizations start initial budgeting and planning. This is the time to initiate conversations, offer insights, and get on their radar. Late Spring (April–May): Decision-making accelerates as deadlines approach. Ensure your proposal is ready and that you’ve addressed all their concerns before contracts are signed. Summer (June–July): A quieter period for some industries, but also the final chance for last-minute decision-makers. Be prepared to adapt quickly for latecomers. Introduce urgency by emphasizing: Future Pain Points: “Remember how stressful last year was when you couldn’t find enough staff? We can help you avoid that.” Cost of Delay: “Acting now ensures we can deliver at the scale you need, without rush fees or last-minute compromises.” Operational Efficiency: “Planning ahead allows us to onboard smoothly, saving time for your team.” Build Relationships During the Off-Season Slow seasons are opportunities to build partner pipeline. Use this period to nurture relationships, showcase results, and prepare for the next buying cycle by cultivating new partnerships, creating joint value propositions, and enabling teams on partner best practices. Slow sales cycles are an opportunity to plan smarter, and learn how to plan together.

💪 David v Goliath.... ... How to compete using a Smart Data Strategy... The biggest brands in the category can often easily outspend competitors when it comes to investment in data & insight, and this can give them a clear competitive edge. Smaller businesses are unlikely to be able to match their spend, but they can spend *smarter* to compete more effectively. Here’s how: 🚀  1. Start with High-Impact Data ↳ Market Overview Reports: Affordable sources like Mintel or Euromonitor provide a snapshot of market size, trends & competitor positioning. This helps identify category trends & establish the right areas or Shoppers to target without the ongoing cost of continuous data feeds. ↳ Focus on Key Business Questions: Pinpoint where insight will make the biggest impact e.g. - Detailed understanding of Retailer category performance ahead of a range review to help secure new distribution. - Identifying target consumers & optimal outreach strategies to boost penetration. 🔍  2. Leverage Selective EPOS & Loyalty Data ↳ Market-Level EPOS Data: This can be invaluable for insight into category dynamics & benchmarking KPIs vs competitors whilst avoiding high costs of retailer-specific feeds. ↳ Loyalty Card Data: Although this will only cover one retailer (so no total market read) it can give you very granular insights on sales performance as well as WHO is buying your brand. 🎯 3. Focus on Actionable Insights ↳ Prioritize Impactful Data: Concentrate on insights that can directly drive product development, pricing & promotions. Avoid ‘nice-to-have’ data that doesn’t materially impact your business. ↳ Make the most of the data you need DO have: Manage scope to only buy the data you *need* & make sure each source is *fully* mined. Investing time in analysis instead of buying new data can yield deeper understanding & more opportunities to optimise your brand performance. 📈 4. Scale Data Investments with Business Growth ↳ Mix One-Off & Continuous Feeds: Start with one-off data sources, then add targeted continuous data feeds as you scale. Regularly review usage & actionability & stop reports which don't add value. 🧠 5. Outsmart, Don’t Outspend --> Be Agile ↳ Develop a *Learning* culture : Smaller businesses can move around the Build/Measure/Learn loop much faster than bigger brands - Insight is the rocket fuel you need to power this. Key Takeaway: Strategic Data Use Although small & medium sized businesses will inevitably have less data, if they use what they can afford to answer the right questions & act quickly to execute then they can find a competitive edge of their own. What are your thoughts & experiences - let us know in the comments. Want to find out more? This week's #CategoryWins newsletter digs into this subject in much more detail : See link in comments or my bio ♻️ & if you enjoyed this post, please like & share it with your network. #CategoryManagement #FMCG #CPG #DataStrategy #CompeteSmarter

You can spend six figures on an event and still walk away with nothing but badge scans and a fuzzy sense of brand presence. But when you treat it as a full-funnel campaign, that’s when the impact starts early and lasts well beyond the event itself.   In this episode, I’m joined by Ellina (Gurvits) Shinnick (HUB International), Kevin Ruane (Precisely), and Isabelle Papoulias (EliteOps) to explore how teams show up with intention and turn B2B events into focused, cross-functional efforts that build brand, strengthen buyer confidence, and avoid the all-too-common post-event fade.   In this episode: Ellina breaks down HUB’s three-part event framework: Sales alignment, rigorous ROI auditing, and one bold theme that ties it all together. Kevin shares how a shift from demand gen to brand-first events, paired with sideline plays and airport branding, led to unexpected revenue wins. Isabelle gives the play-by-play on how startups can show up strong with limited budgets and purposeful sequencing.   Plus: 💸 Why pre-event planning is where ROI starts 📅 How to audit your event calendar for strategic fit (not just attendance numbers) 🗣️ What actually works for post-event follow-up, and what to skip 🎨 Why one big creative idea can carry you through a whole year of events   Tune in to steal what works and rethink how events drive brand and pipeline! Listen via the link in the comments.