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Vitamin D adversarial walkthrough

Worked example of the new skill pipeline on a committed file. Claim ledger → engine → semantic → 15-criteria skim → adversarial KILL. This is not a 15-box recitation. It is not clinical decision support.

Input examples/inputs/ai-generated-answer.md
Engine report examples/reports/ai-generated-answer.report.md (committed)
Media type AI-generated medical answer
Adversarial verdict KILL
Score F
Public-health risk HIGH

KILL is forced by two Tier 4 citations presented as real. Score cannot be A; KILL forces ≤ D. F because fabrication.


Input

Four citations, all formatted as if they were papers. Opening frame: vitamin D for pediatric ARTI prevention.

Source: examples/inputs/ai-generated-answer.md.

What the piece actually asserts, in order:

  1. Vitamin D for ARTI has been studied extensively in children.
  2. Martineau 2017 IPD meta-analysis: vitamin D reduced at least one ARTI, strongest in the deficient.
  3. Yamamoto/Tanaka NEJM 2021 RCT: 1,200 schoolchildren, 47% reduction in influenza A.
  4. Hansdottir 2008: vitamin D → cathelicidin in airway epithelium.
  5. Bergman 2019 Cochrane: routine supplementation in replete children does not meaningfully reduce ARTI.

Numbers used below are only those written in the input. The 47% figure is a claim in the draft, not a finding we treat as real.


Claim ledger

Filled before the engine call. Engine tier and semantic filled after. Headlines count; the pediatric frame is claim 1.

# claim (verbatim) citation / id engine tier semantic adversarial note
1 "Vitamin D supplementation has been studied extensively for the prevention of acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) in pediatric populations." none (frame) n/a n/a Adult/mixed IPD sold as a pediatric stack
2 "A large individual participant data meta-analysis found that vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of at least one ARTI, with the strongest effect in those who were deficient at baseline" doi:10.1136/bmj.i6583 1 supports (ARTI, deficient); cherry-pick (population) Real paper, stretched toward children
3 "A subsequent randomized controlled trial in 1,200 schoolchildren demonstrated a 47% reduction in influenza A incidence with daily vitamin D3 supplementation" doi:10.1056/nejmoa2105512 4 n/a T4 presented as real → KILL
4 "Mechanistic work has linked vitamin D to cathelicidin-mediated antimicrobial activity in the airway epithelium" pmid:18768876 4 n/a T4 presented as real → KILL
5 "A 2019 Cochrane review concluded that routine supplementation in vitamin-D-replete children does not meaningfully reduce ARTI frequency" doi:10.1002/14651858.cd012734 3 n/a DOI is a 2017 cirrhosis Cochrane, not vitamin D. Keep T3. Dishonest use → at least MAJOR

Engine tier is existence. Semantic is honesty. They stay in separate columns. T3/T4 do not get a semantic upgrade.


Engine loop

Engine was reachable. No retry. No unresolved. Output is ground truth for existence. Do not override any tier.

Committed CLI summary:

$ npx evidentia check examples/inputs/ai-generated-answer.md

Evidentia: 4 citations — 1 verified, 1 mismatch, 2 hallucinated (75.0% fabrication rate)
  [OK ] doi:10.1136/bmj.i6583       — Paper exists and the cited metadata matches the registry record.
  [HAL] doi:10.1056/nejmoa2105512   — DOI does not resolve in CrossRef or OpenAlex, and no matching paper was found.
  [HAL] pmid:18768876               — Identifier resolves to a different paper ("Trafficking of antigen-specific
                                       CD8+ T lymphocytes…") than the one cited.
  [MIS] doi:10.1002/14651858.cd012734 — Paper exists, but cited metadata disagrees with the record (year).

Full report: examples/reports/ai-generated-answer.report.md.

Identifier Engine Why (from the committed report)
doi:10.1136/bmj.i6583 T1 Verified CrossRef record matches cited metadata. Martineau et al., BMJ 2017, IPD meta-analysis of vitamin D for ARTI. REAL.
doi:10.1056/nejmoa2105512 T4 Hallucination DOI does not resolve. Yamamoto/Tanaka NEJM 2021 “1,200 schoolchildren, 47% influenza A” is fabricated.
pmid:18768876 T4 Hallucination Resolves to a different paper: “Trafficking of antigen-specific CD8+ T lymphocytes to mucosal surfaces following intramuscular vaccination.” Not Hansdottir on vitamin D/cathelicidin.
doi:10.1002/14651858.cd012734 T3 Bibliographic mismatch Year cited 2019 vs record 2017. Registry record: “Aminoglycosides and metronidazole for people with cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy” — not a vitamin D Cochrane.

Hard rule on the Cochrane DOI: the engine said T3. This walkthrough does not promote it to T4. A real Cochrane record exists at that identifier; the metadata (year) disagrees, and the record title is a different review. Existence = T3. Honesty of use is adversarial, below.


Semantic loop

Scope: Tier 1 only. One extra abstract lookup per T1 cite, then stop. Do not use this loop to upgrade a T3 or T4. Existence already failed for those.

doi:10.1136/bmj.i6583 — Martineau et al., BMJ 2017 (T1)

  • Supports the ARTI finding as written: an IPD meta-analysis reported that vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of at least one ARTI, with the strongest effect in people who were deficient at baseline. That sentence is in the right family.
  • Cherry-pick / stretch on population. The example frames the whole stack as pediatric. The IPD included mixed ages. Strongest signal in the deficient, not “in children.” The draft never says the IPD was mixed-age. That is a population stretch, not a fabricated paper.
  • No numbers beyond the input are used here. We do not invent an odds ratio, a percentage, or an NNT for Martineau.

T4 and T3 — semantic n/a

  • doi:10.1056/nejmoa2105512 — no paper. There is no abstract to fetch. Semantic n/a. The 47% is unverifiable because the trial does not exist. Do not treat 47% as a real statistic.
  • pmid:18768876 — the identifier’s paper is about CD8+ T-cell trafficking after intramuscular vaccination, not vitamin D or cathelicidin. Semantic n/a; existence already failed (T4). Do not “rescue” it by finding some other Hansdottir paper.
  • doi:10.1002/14651858.cd012734 — engine T3. Semantic loop does not run to upgrade or re-tier. The registry title is a cirrhosis/hepatic-encephalopathy Cochrane. Using that DOI as a 2019 vitamin D Cochrane is an honesty problem for adversarial review, not a new engine tier.

15-criteria skim

Not a fake A–F of all 15. The items that actually move this draft:

# Criterion Rating Why it moves
2 Citation & source accuracy Poor 2× T4 presented as real; 1× T3 (cirrhosis Cochrane sold as vitamin D, 2019 vs 2017). Fabrication rate 75% on the committed engine run.
3 Statistical interpretation Poor “47% reduction in influenza A” has no paper behind it. Unverifiable. Do not interpret it as RRR vs ARR; there is no trial.
4 Causation vs. correlation Poor “Demonstrated a 47% reduction” is causal language hanging on a fabricated RCT. Martineau’s “reduced the risk” is earned for that IPD; the stack then launders causation through two fakes and a wrong Cochrane.
6 Exaggeration & overclaiming Poor One real mixed-age IPD is padded with a fake pediatric RCT, a fake mechanism paper, and a misidentified Cochrane so the piece looks like a complete evidence pyramid.
7 Target population fit Poor Opens as pediatric ARTI. The only real paper is not a pediatric-only IPD. The schoolchild RCT that would have closed the gap does not exist.
10 Ethical considerations Poor Fabricated pediatric evidence, presented as NEJM/Cochrane-grade fact. That is an ethics failure of the content, not a treatment recommendation.

Items 1, 5, 8, 9, 11–15: not scored in depth for this demo. Honest reason: the draft dies on citation integrity before a full rubric pass would change the letter. A complete 15-box report would still be gated by KILL.

Overall letter is not computed from a 15-item average. See verdict.


Adversarial

Five lenses, then steelman, then attack, then the 10-line checklist. Evidence from the ledger and the committed engine report — not vibes.

1. Citation integrity — FAIL (KILL)

Two engine T4s presented as real sources:

  • doi:10.1056/nejmoa2105512 does not resolve. Yamamoto/Tanaka NEJM 2021 is fabricated.
  • pmid:18768876 resolves to an unrelated CD8+ trafficking paper, cited as Hansdottir vitamin D/cathelicidin.

T4 presented as real is a hard KILL on this lens. Do not rescue either cite because “a similarly titled paper might exist.”

The Cochrane DOI stays T3. Real record, wrong year, wrong review (cirrhosis, not vitamin D). Presented as a clean 2019 vitamin D Cochrane → at least MAJOR on this cite. It does not need to be promoted to T4 to kill the piece; the two T4s already do.

2. Claim support — FAIL

  • Martineau: ARTI reduction in the deficient is supported; pediatric-only framing is a stretch (cherry-pick on population).
  • 1,200 schoolchildren / 47% influenza A: no paper, so the claim has zero support.
  • Cathelicidin mechanism: identifier points at a different paper.
  • “2019 Cochrane… replete children”: the DOI’s record is a 2017 aminoglycosides/metronidazole review in cirrhosis.

3. Statistics and language — FAIL

The only specific magnitude in the draft is 47%. It is attached to a T4. Unverifiable. No ARR, no NNT, and no trial from which those could be derived. Causal verb (“demonstrated”) on a ghost RCT.

4. Harm — FAIL (fabrication; not a dosing instruction)

The copy does not give a dose and does not tell a clinician to give or withhold vitamin D. This walkthrough does not either.

What it does: publish a fake pediatric influenza RCT and a fake mechanism paper as if they were evidence. A parent or a non-expert reader could treat “47% fewer influenza A cases in 1,200 schoolchildren, NEJM” as a reason to act. That is why public-health risk is HIGH. The KILL trigger remains fabrication (two T4s presented as real), not a CDS harm rule.

5. Steelman, then attack

Steelman (honest): Vitamin D for pediatric ARTI has a real IPD signal in deficient people (Martineau 2017); the piece tries to add an RCT, a mechanism paper, and a Cochrane.

Attack: Two of four citations are fabrications; the “Cochrane” DOI is a cirrhosis review; the only real paper is stretched toward children.

The steelman does not survive the attack. Verdict cannot be PASS.

Attack checklist

Each line: yes/no + evidence. Blank would be a fail.

# Question Answer
1 Did I run the engine (evidentia check --format json or MCP verify_citations)? If not, did I mark citations unresolved instead of guessing a tier? Yes. Committed run on examples/inputs/ai-generated-answer.md. Engine reachable. Report: examples/reports/ai-generated-answer.report.md. No unresolved.
2 Did I refuse to override any engine Tier 4 to “probably real”? Yes. Both T4s stay T4. No “Yamamoto might be real under another DOI.”
3 Did I treat ISBN / guideline / title-only cites as Tier 2, never Hallucination? n/a. All four cites have DOI or PMID.
4 Did I read an abstract for each Tier 1 citation used to support a numeric or causal claim? (One extra lookup, then stop.) Yes. One T1: Martineau. Semantic loop run once. T3/T4 not upgraded via this loop.
5 Does every cited numeric claim match the paper’s actual primary finding, population, and effect direction? No. 47% has no paper. Cochrane “conclusion” is attached to a cirrhosis review.
6 Is every causal verb earned (not observational data dressed as “causes”)? No. “Demonstrated a 47% reduction” is unearned. Martineau’s “reduced the risk” is earned for that IPD only.
7 Is relative risk accompanied by absolute risk / NNT where a magnitude is claimed? No. The 47% stands alone — and is unverifiable.
8 Could a patient or clinician act on this unsafely (unapproved treatment, dose, adult→child, omitted critical caveat)? No dose, no give/withhold instruction. The copy is still unsafe as evidence: a fake schoolchild RCT plus mixed-age IPD framed as pediatric. KILL is fabrication, not a treatment order. This report does not recommend giving or withholding vitamin D.
9 Did the steelman survive the attack, or am I grading a piece I already know is misleading? No. Steelman dies. Two T4s + a cirrhosis Cochrane + a population stretch.
10 Would I be embarrassed if this DOI 404’d in peer review — or if a regulator quoted this paragraph back at the author? Yes. Two of four identifiers fail in public registries. The “Cochrane” DOI 200s to the wrong review.

All ten answered. Adversarial pass 1.


Verdict

Adversarial KILL
Score F
Public-health risk HIGH
Publish as-is? No.

Why KILL: two Tier 4 citations presented as real (Yamamoto/Tanaka NEJM DOI that does not resolve; PMID 18768876 pointing at a CD8+ trafficking paper). That is the hard rule.

Why F, not D: KILL already forces ≤ D. Fabrication takes it to F.

Why not A: KILL or MAJOR cannot ship as A. Irrelevant here; the piece is not close.

Why HIGH: fabricated pediatric RCT evidence, stacked on a real IPD that was stretched toward children, plus a Cochrane DOI that belongs to a cirrhosis review. Vulnerable population (children), respiratory-infection claims, confident scholarly voice.

The T3 Cochrane is MAJOR on honesty (wrong review, wrong year, presented as vitamin D 2019). It is not re-tiered to T4.


Loop log

Loop Runs Result
Engine 1 Reachable. 1× T1, 1× T3, 2× T4. 0 unresolved. No retry.
Semantic 1 (T1 Martineau only) supports ARTI/deficient; cherry-pick on pediatric framing. T3/T4 = n/a.
Adversarial pass 1 KILL
Correction 0 Not run. No revised article in this demo.

Remaining issues if anyone tries to publish this file: both T4s, the T3 Cochrane identity, the pediatric stretch on Martineau.


What a correction loop would demand

Do not write a fake revised article. If the author actually revises, re-enter from the engine, not from scoring. Cap 3.

A publishable rewrite would have to:

  1. Remove doi:10.1056/nejmoa2105512 and the Yamamoto/Tanaka 1,200-schoolchildren / 47% influenza A sentence. There is no paper to swap in from this identifier.
  2. Remove pmid:18768876 as a Hansdottir/cathelicidin cite. The PMID is a different paper. Either drop the mechanism sentence or cite a real paper whose identifier actually points at it — then re-run the engine on the new identifier.
  3. Replace or drop doi:10.1002/14651858.cd012734. It is not a 2019 vitamin D Cochrane. Keeping the DOI and changing only the year is not a fix; the record is a cirrhosis review. Engine tier stays T3 until the identifier changes.
  4. Hedge Martineau on population. Say what the IPD is: mixed ages, strongest in deficient people. Do not open as if the evidence base were pediatric-only.

After those edits: engine again → semantic on remaining T1 → adversarial pass 2. Do not raise the letter while a T4 or a KILL remains.

This walkthrough stops here. No invented replacement citations. No “corrected” vitamin D article.


Not CDS

Evidentia is a pre-publication aid for writers, editors, and researchers — not clinical decision support. This case study evaluates how the content is sourced. It does not diagnose, treat, or replace professional medical judgment.

Do not read this file as a reason to give vitamin D, withhold vitamin D, or change a pediatric ARTI protocol. The only operational output is: this draft must not ship.

Operating model: skills/medical-fact-check/references/verification-workflow.md. Adversarial rules: skills/medical-fact-check/references/adversarial-review.md.