Vantaa is building an anticipation model
While anticipation of competence helps to strengthen the link between educational institutions and the world of work, the institutions' teaching content does not always keep pace with technological development.
The on-going discussion on what kind of competence will be needed in the world of work of the future and how the education system and employers can together prepare for these changes is lively in Finland.
The City of Vantaa, which has set out ambitiously to build the country’s first city-level anticipation function, is an interesting example of this. While being part of the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Vantaa is administratively an independent city.
The City’s new anticipation team began its work in spring 2025. Its aim is to integrate futures thinking into the management and practical development of the City. The team consists of two futures researchers who work in close cooperation with different actors, educational institutions and companies in the City.
Look ahead, not back
Satu Wahlberg, Senior Foresight Expert and Futures Researcher in Vantaa, says that the City cannot base its development exclusively on historical information.
“Data-driven knowledge-based management often looks back. We would like to integrate foresight into it, and for this we need new tools, including scenario thinking and attention to megatrends. This enables us to prepare for alternative futures,” Wahlberg explains.
The special features of Vantaa support foresight work. This city of around 250,000 inhabitants is the fourth largest in Finland, growing rapidly and multicultural, and it has a young population structure.
“Vantaa is the fastest-changing city in Finland. This is why anticipation is particularly important here. Multiculturalism and diversity are our resources for building competence of the future.”
Three main objectives of foresight
Three main objectives have been set for Vantaa’s foresight work. The first objective is strengthening foresight capabilities throughout the City organisation. The second one is producing future-oriented information and stepping up cooperation, ensuring that the information will not be trapped in silos.
The third objective is linking foresight to management and implementation, so that the results can also be seen in practice. This is why the anticipation team is located within the City, close to decision-making. The methods include operating environment analyses, examination of weak signals and stress testing of the strategy using scenarios.
“While being aware of our pioneering role, we also understand that we are dealing with big issues,” says Wahlberg.
In Finland, foresight refers to systematic anticipation of future competence needs and societal changes based on research evidence. Public actors increasingly rely on foresight as a basis for their work and decision-making.
Gaps between educational institutions and the world of work
Anticipation of competence helps to strengthen the link between educational institutions and the world of work. According to Wahlberg, employers are best placed to know about future competence needs, but few companies engage in far-reaching anticipation.
The semiconductor industry is something of an exception in this respect. This industry will be emerging as a significant employer in Vantaa in the next few decades. The lobbying organisation Federation of Finnish Technology Industries has estimated that the field currently employs around 7,000 people, almost one half of whom, or 3,200, in Vantaa. It has been estimated that the industry could create up to 20,000 jobs by 2035.
The problem is that the teaching content of educational institutions does not keep up with technological advancement.
Jaska Tuominen, Vantaa-based Okmetik's Senior Vice President, Human Resources, Sustainability and Communications, says that the gap between education and labour market needs is great.
Okmetic is the world’s seventh largest silicon wafer manufacturer and the market leader in supplying advanced silicon wafers. Silicon wafers are used in sensors and electronics in the automotive, pharmaceutical and aviation industries among others.
The company has worked together with higher education institutions to persuade engineering students to choose semiconductor technology as their major subject.
“Around a dozen Masters of Science in Microtechnology and Nanotechnology graduate from the local university every year. If we need one hundred new experts and the company next to us needs another hundred, this equation will not work. The population is not growing at an equal rate,” Tuominen says.
Business-led education as a solution
According to Tuominen, the lack of expertise has led to a situation where companies train an increasing number of experts themselves. This may undermine the role of the education system over the long term. A handful of semiconductor industry companies in Finland are already only recruiting experts from each other or from abroad.
While education in Finland is mainly public and degree-based, Tuominen sees business-led training programmes that do not necessarily aim for a qualification as the solution. For example, workers can complete short micro-training programmes to update their competence quickly.
“Finland's competitiveness is based on specialisation and a high level of expertise, not mass production. As we cannot match China in speed, we must specialise and be more advanced.”
Balance between short-term and long-term needs
Milma Arola, Leading Specialist at Sitra, says that understanding different time spans is important in anticipating competence.
“The perspective is completely different if we examine the employment situation in a certain sector or if we look more comprehensively at the competences that every citizen needs to ensure that our society will stand firm in 20 years’ time.”
Sitra, which operates under Parliament of Finland, is a politically and financially independent fund. Its mission is to enhance well-being in Finland and accelerate economic growth within the limits of nature’s carrying capacity by anticipating the future.
Arola finds it important that Finnish success is discussed not only from the perspective of competitiveness and economic growth, but also in terms of competence and general knowledge and ability.
"Without considering these aspects at the national level, we would really be in a pickle."
Text: Annu Grinan
